The Europa League and Conference League round of 16 continues next, with Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Crystal Palace all set to play their second-leg fixtures on Thursday.
UEFA’s coefficient rankings—which decide the two countries that earn an extra Champions League slot next season—had England sitting comfortably at the top going into this week. The system works by combining all clubs’ performances in European competitions and dividing by the number of participating teams from each country to get an average score.
England have practically locked in one of the top spots. Before Wednesday’s games, BBC Sport’s Dale Johnson estimated that Spanish clubs would need 17 wins, while German and Italian sides would require 18, just to catch up—assuming English teams don’t win another match.
However, things get more complex due to bonus points awarded in the Champions League. For example, Barcelona earned Spain 0.438 points after beating Newcastle United, while Liverpool added 0.611 points for their win over Galatasaray. Bayern Munich also contributed 0.5 points after defeating Atalanta
There’s still room for more points from Villa, Forest, and Palace, meaning the race could effectively be settled after Thursday’s matches—even if results don’t fully favor English sides.
Portugal are already at a disadvantage, with Sporting CP their only remaining Champions League team, although Braga and FC Porto remain in the Europa League. Arsenal will face Sporting in the quarter-finals and could eliminate Portugal from contention.
Italy’s chances have also taken a hit. Atalanta are already out after losing to Bayern, and Bologna and AS Roma will face each other in the Europa League last 16, limiting the number of points Italy can gain. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s win over Bayer Leverkusen boosted England’s tally while denying Germany more points.
Spain still has a path to catch England, but it would require Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid to go deep in the Champions League, alongside early exits for English clubs across all competitions. Strong Europa League runs from Real Betis and Celta Vigo would also be necessary.
