Liverpool’s season may ultimately be shaped more by events in Europe than at home, with the latest Champions League permutations now spelling out exactly what is needed.
As outlined by Liverpoolfc.com, Arne Slot’s side require only one point from their final two league-phase fixtures to confirm a place in the knockout play-off round. The Reds are currently ninth on 12 points after six matches, level with Inter Milan and Real Madrid, and sit outside the top eight purely on goal difference.
With domestic form wobbling, the European stage is beginning to feel like the ideal platform to revive the standards that delivered last season’s title. Attention now turns to Wednesday night’s trip to Marseille, followed by Qarabag’s visit to Anfield a week later.
Securing a single point from those two games guarantees a finish between ninth and 24th, setting up a two-legged play-off in February.
But the table also presents a far more attractive scenario. Liverpool remain firmly in the hunt for a top-eight finish, which would eliminate the need for that extra round and send them straight into the last 16.
This context adds weight to Jamie Carragher’s recent comments on Slot’s European focus. The former defender suggested the head coach views continental success as the natural progression after lifting the Premier League title in his first campaign. Carragher also highlighted Slot’s admiration for teams capable of controlling matches at Champions League level — a philosophy reflected in the summer additions of Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong.
Those ideas will be tested against a Marseille side currently 16th on nine points.
The numbers underline just how tight the race is. A single win could realistically propel Liverpool into the top eight, while any dropped points risk forcing a path through a congested and unpredictable play-off bracket.
Back in November, Opta’s data-led model forecast an eighth-place finish on around 15.4 points — a prediction that now looks strikingly accurate given Liverpool’s present position. The same analysis also suggested that all six Premier League clubs would end inside the top 12, highlighting the intensity of this new league-phase format.
With two matches left, destiny remains in Liverpool’s hands. The pathway is clear, the calculation simple — now it’s about producing when it matters most
