Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has indicated that Manchester City might receive a substantial points deduction—potentially in the range of 40 to 60 points—rather than facing automatic relegation, as Liverpool and others observe developments in the ongoing case.
Maguire, appearing on the latest episode of The Overlap, explained that if City are found guilty of multiple breaches in their 115-charge Financial Fair Play case (covering alleged violations from 2009 to 2018, which the club has consistently denied), the penalty would likely involve deducting points. This stems from the fact that the Premier League lacks authority to relegate them to League One or League Two—that falls under the EFL’s jurisdiction, and no EFL charges have been proven against the club.
He pointed to precedents set by Everton and Nottingham Forest, who received 6-point and 4-point deductions, respectively, in 2024 for single offenses over a three-year span. In contrast, City’s accusations span nine years and involve a much larger scale, with potentially significant financial figures involved.
To maintain consistency with prior rulings, Maguire suggested multiplying those earlier penalties by a factor of ten—leading to an estimated 40- to 60-point deduction as a logical outcome.
He noted that the accusations go beyond standard FFP issues, potentially including elements of corporate fraud, which has prolonged the process. If proven, this could carry serious implications, such as requiring the board of directors to resign—drawing parallels to the Juventus case in Serie A, where the board stepped down over proven false claims regarding player wages.
Maguire emphasized an “honesty issue” that would make it untenable for City representatives to continue in meetings with other Premier League clubs and the league itself (of which they are a shareholder) if guilt is established. He added that a guilty verdict would likely trigger a complete restructuring of the club.
The case remains unresolved nearly two years after charges were announced, with the independent hearing concluding in late 2024 after reviewing an estimated half a million pieces of evidence. A verdict is expected in the coming months
