Liverpool travel to Elland Road today hoping to regain the form that won us the Premier League last season.
The Reds struggled again in midweek, needing a late own goal from Sunderland to rescue a 1-1 draw, with Florian Wirtz’s shot deflected in off Nordi Mukiele.
Opta analyst Joel Sritharan has crunched the numbers ahead of Leeds vs Liverpool, suggesting that while we remain favourites, the match is far from straightforward.Liverpool’s away form under scrutiny ahead of Leeds clash.
The Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool a 55.8% chance of winning, with Leeds only at 22.1% and a 22% chance of a draw.
We are unbeaten in our last six Premier League away games at Elland Road (W4 D2), including a 6-1 demolition in April 2023.
However, our recent away form has been patchy, losing seven of the last 11, highlighting vulnerabilities that Leeds could exploit.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be the key danger for Leeds after scoring against Manchester City and Chelsea in midweek.
With Leeds scoring early in recent home fixtures, Liverpool must avoid conceding first; we have lost six of seven league games this season when falling behind.
This underlines the importance of Mo Salah, our most creative player, who has crafted 28 chances for teammates this term, alongside Florian Wirtz who showed glimpses against Sunderland.
The German’s confidence from his deflected goal could prove crucial in breaking down Leeds, while our pre-Leeds injury update confirmed Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley are fit, giving Arne Slot selection options.
Liverpool set to exploit Leeds injury concerns
Leeds have injury doubts, with Daniel James and Sean Longstaff ruled out, while Lukas Nmecha and Calvert-Lewin face late fitness tests, as confirmed by Daniel Farke.
The German admits his squad are stretched, having played three matches in seven days against top-four sides.
Liverpool’s challenge will be to impose our rhythm, control possession, and exploit gaps left by tired legs at Elland Road.
Historical data favours us, but our recent inconsistency suggests this could be a stern test.
We must regain momentum quickly, with Champions League action at Inter Milan following midweek.
A focused performance from our head coach and his squad will be vital to ensure Liverpool avoid another frustrating away afternoon.
